I’m no academic nor an economist but I do understand how some models and theories can be used to illustrate real world issues.
So much advice is around saying that leaders need to work on their business, not just in it. LinkedIn is full of this mantra. Are we doing this though, and if so, what exactly are we thinking about?
Lately I have seen numerous examples where apparently successful organisations haven’t taken that step back to consider what lies ahead. What infrastructure needs are coming up, how much growth do we have, is it time to pivot? Basic questions but ones we need to answer.
Now before those in the for purpose space switch off thinking this is some sort of capitalist crusade, think again. Most of the examples I’ve seen lately are within your area. Small, local voluntary ones as well as large national organisations.
So things are looking good?
Excellent, now let me introduce you to my friend the S curve. This squiggly line is a great tool for strategic thinking, and best of all, you don’t really have to worry about the numbers on it.
This curve is used in many ways but at its heart, it’s a very simple concept. It’s all about growth. When you start off, your growth is usually slow, whether it is sales, clients, members or people supported (A). Growth then picks up and the graph shoots upwards (B). Sooner or later though, your growth will start to slow down as new sales or people become harder to find or engage with (C). Eventually most things finish growing and then you can start to lose business (D). Newer products or services come into the market and your client base starts to move on. This is normal and generic. An organisation’s longevity often relies on bringing onboard new “s”.
Of course the speed, size and length of growth vary greatly between products and organisations.
Where would you place your organisation on this graph? Forget the numbers or what the Y axis represents, just focus on the picture and pick a spot.
A
Do we see growth picking up and when do we think we’ll see a sharp upturn (or will we)?
If the growth comes, what infrastructure will we need to put in place? More staff, more administration, compliance management, new vehicles or plant?
B
How much longer will this good growth occur?
Will we need increased infrastructure, and how soon?
At what point should we be starting to look at ‘what next’?
C
Do we agree that our growth is going to plateau off?
How much time do we think we have before numbers start to decrease?
If we stay at this level or start to decrease, what are the implications on resourcing?
What can we start working on now to replace this S?
D
What new S can we introduce now?
Is our infrastructure now fit for purpose, and if so, for how long?
Do we maintain a decreasing product/service or should we be phasing it out?
Obviously this is all very simplified, but hopefully it gives you an idea about some of the things you need to think about, whatever stage of growth you’re at. There’s plenty of information out there about S curves.
Sing out if you want to run your ideas on this topic past a sounding board, I’m happy to sense check your thinking.
The Optimistic Cynic 